Canada · pollsters

Which pollsters to trust in Canada

Every pollster that has polled Canada, rated on how close its final polls came to the result and how openly it publishes; 11 polls there in the last 30 days.

Scored the same way as our British ratings, out of 100. Final polls at the twelve general elections since 1988 count towards accuracy. Each pollster is ranked against Canada's final polls, and one with little record is pulled towards a typical one, so grades show how a pollster compares with its rivals here and can't be compared across countries. Openness counts whether a pollster publishes its tables, sample, dates, method, unweighted figures and undecided share, and whether the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) accredits it.

Pollster	Grade	Score	Accuracy /50	Lead /20	Openness /30	Elections	Polls now
Léger	A	77	35	12	30	8	15
Mainstreet Research	A	77	39	13	25	4	7
Liaison Strategies	B provisional	71	38	14	19	1	58
Nanos Research	B	68	39	14	15	8	78
Angus Reid Institute	B	63	31	12	21	5	10
Pollara Strategic Insights	B provisional	63	19	14	30	1	1
Pallas Data	B provisional	61	35	13	14	1	5
Research Co.	B	60	35	13	12	3	5
Ipsos Canada	C	57	31	11	15	9	5
Abacus Data	C	56	31	13	12	4	38
Innovative Research Group	C	47	10	9	28	5	7
EKOS Research Associates	D	38	18	6	14	9	11

New pollsters

Polling now, with no final poll at a past election yet to grade them on

Pollster	Grade	Score	Accuracy /50	Lead /20	Openness /30	Elections	Polls now
Spark Advocacy	new	–	30	12	6	0	4
Kolosowski Strategies	new	–	30	12	0	0	1

Past pollsters

A final-poll record, but no polls in the last year

Pollster	Grade	Score	Accuracy /50	Lead /20	Openness /30	Elections
Cardinal Research not polling now	B provisional record only	67	35	12	–	1
Harris-Decima / Decima Research not polling now	B record only	62	31	12	–	4
Environics not polling now	C record only	58	30	10	–	2
Forum Research not polling now	C record only	58	31	10	–	4
Counsel Public Affairs not polling now	C provisional record only	58	28	12	–	1
Zogby International not polling now	C provisional record only	55	27	11	–	1
Asking Canadians not polling now	C provisional record only	55	28	10	–	1
Campaign Research not polling now	C record only	53	23	14	–	2
YouGov not polling now	C provisional record only	53	24	13	–	1
The Strategic Counsel not polling now	C record only	50	28	7	–	2
DART / Maru not polling now	C provisional record only	49	22	12	–	1
COMPAS not polling now	D record only	42	23	6	–	3
Focaldata not polling now	D provisional record only	41	15	14	–	1

At past elections

The average miss of its final polls, by party, in points: positive means it had the party too high.

	Elections	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP	Green
Ipsos Canada	9	−1.3	−0.5	−0.2	+2.1	+0.5
EKOS Research Associates	9	−0.8	−2.1	−0.7	+1.6	+2.2
Léger	8	−0.3	−0.7	+0.2	+1.2	−0.5
Nanos Research	8	−0.4	−1.5	−0.2	+1.8	+0.4
Angus Reid Institute	5	−1.8	−1.1	−0.3	+2.6	+0.8
Innovative Research Group	5	+0.9	−3.2	−0.5	+1.7	+1.5
Mainstreet Research	4	−0.5	−1.2	−0.5	+0.9	−0.4
Harris-Decima / Decima Research	4	−0.6	−0.7	+1.3	+1.3	+2.4
Forum Research	4	−0.8	−2.5	−0.1	+0.8	+1.8
Abacus Data	4	−1.2	−2.4	+0.1	+1.4	+1.5
Research Co.	3	−0.5	−2.5	−0.5	+1.6	+1.5
COMPAS	3	−1.6	+2.9	+0.2	−1.6	–
Environics	2	−1.6	+2.0	−1.0	+1.5	–
Campaign Research	2	−1.5	−2.7	−0.8	+2.6	+2.7
The Strategic Counsel	2	−0.7	−2.0	+0.3	+0.7	+4.2
Liaison Strategies	1	−0.8	−0.3	−0.3	+0.7	–
Cardinal Research	1	+0.2	−2.3	+0.7	+0.7	–
Pollara Strategic Insights	1	−2.8	−3.3	−0.3	+3.7	–
Pallas Data	1	−0.5	−2.5	+0.1	+1.0	–
Counsel Public Affairs	1	−1.6	−3.7	−0.6	+1.2	–
Zogby International	1	+0.1	+3.3	−3.7	−0.5	–
Asking Canadians	1	−3.6	+0.4	−0.5	+4.5	+0.3
YouGov	1	−3.6	−1.7	−1.6	+1.2	–
DART / Maru	1	−4.1	−1.3	+0.4	+5.0	+0.5
Focaldata	1	−3.2	−3.8	+0.2	+4.4	–

Now

Its latest poll minus our average, in points. A lean is not an error: nobody knows yet who is right.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP	Green	Others	PPC
Léger	+1.3	+2.5	−0.3	−2.9	+0.5	+0.7	–
Liaison Strategies	−1.7	−0.5	−0.3	+3.1	−0.5	−0.3	+0.2
Nanos Research	+0.7	−2.6	+1.2	+2.0	−0.5	–	+0.6
Abacus Data	+1.3	+1.5	−0.3	−1.9	+0.5	−0.3	−0.8

Which way each pollster leans

Each of the 245 polls since the last election is set against the other pollsters' polls of the same fortnight. A pollster that keeps putting a party above everyone else has a house effect. It is not a mistake in itself: the result decides who was right. Our average does not adjust for these; it takes each pollster's latest poll with equal weight.

Pollster	Polls	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Bloc	Scatter v sampling
Nanos Research May 2025 – Oct 2026	77	−0.6	−2.0	+2.2	0.0	1.26
Liaison Strategies May 2025 – Oct 2026	58	−1.2	−0.7	+1.5	−0.2	1.20
Abacus Data May 2025 – Oct 2026	38	−0.9	+3.2	−1.8	+0.3	1.11
Léger Jul 2025 – Oct 2026	15	+2.9	+0.7	−3.2	+0.2	1.37
EKOS Research Associates Jun 2025 – Oct 2026	11	+0.5	−4.3	+3.1	−0.9	1.12
Angus Reid Institute Sep 2025 – Sep 2026	10	−2.0	+1.0	+1.0	+0.8	1.81
Innovative Research Group May 2025 – Feb 2026	7	−1.6	+1.1	0.0	+0.1	1.16
Mainstreet Research Jun 2025 – Jun 2026	7	+1.1	+1.2	−1.6	−1.0	1.78
Research Co. Jul 2025 – Aug 2026	5	+1.1	−1.3	−0.5	+0.3	1.41
Pallas Data Aug 2025 – May 2026	5	−0.1	−0.2	+0.1	+0.1	0.84
Ipsos Canada Sep 2025 – Aug 2026	5	−0.1	+0.4	−0.5	+0.8	0.84
Spark Advocacy (Spark Insights) May 2025 – Apr 2026	4	−0.2	−0.9	0.0	−0.2	2.03
Kolosowski Strategies Nov 2025 – Nov 2025	1	+0.7	+1.7	−1.4	−0.3	–
Pollara Strategic Insights Feb 2026 – Feb 2026	1	+0.5	−0.2	+0.1	+0.3	–

Cells: points above (+) or below (−) the other pollsters of the same fortnight, shrunk toward zero for pollsters with few polls. Bold: more than two standard errors from zero. Hover for the raw figure.

Herding: too close to everyone else?

A poll of 1,000 people should land a point or two from the truth by chance alone, so honest polls scatter. The last column compares each pollster's scatter around the others (its lean removed) with what its sample sizes imply. About 1 is normal. Well below 1 means its polls sit closer to the pack than chance allows, which can mean adjusting toward other polls; well above 1 means more noise than its sample explains.

No pollster with eight or more polls is below 0.5.

Noisier than their samples explain (above 1.6): Angus Reid Institute

Caveats: a pollster that polls rarely has few others in its fortnight; small parties' scatter is small anyway; a missing sample size counts as 1,000; online panels with heavy weighting can be steadier without copying anyone. This is a flag for a closer look, not a verdict.

Which pollsters to trust in Canada

New pollsters

Past pollsters

At past elections

Now

Which way each pollster leans

Herding: too close to everyone else?

How the score works

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