How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 48 for 4 November 2026.
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1At Spain's 2023 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 22 final polls. See the page
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2At France's 2024 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
RN + allies: 36.1% in the final polls, 33.2% on the day. See the page
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3In the United Kingdom, what chance does our forecast give for “Hung parliament”?
54%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did VVD win at the Netherlands' 2021 election?
21.9%. See the page
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5Which party won the most votes at France's 2017 election?
Ensemble with 24.0%, ahead of RN on 21.3%. See the page
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6At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls closest to the result?
2000: 0.4 points out per party on average. See the page
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7Which party has gained most in the polls since Australia's last election?
One Nation: 6.4% then, 26.2% in our average now (+19.8 points). See the page
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8Which party has gained most in the polls since Germany's last election (23 February 2025)?
AfD: 20.8% then, 27.4% in our average now (+6.6 points). See the page
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9At Spain's 2023 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
PP: 34.1% in the final polls, 33.1% on the day. See the page
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10To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Lab win at the United Kingdom's 2024 election?
34.7%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.