How well do you know the polls in Australia?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 48 for 4 November 2026.
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1In Australia, what chance does our forecast give for “Coalition + One Nation 76+”?
60%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2In Australia, what chance does our forecast give for “Hung parliament”?
97%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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3To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Coalition win at Australia's 2019 election?
41.4%. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Coalition win at Australia's 2022 election?
35.7%. See the page
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5Which party has gained most in the polls since Australia's last election?
One Nation: 6.4% then, 26.2% in our average now (+19.8 points). See the page
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6At which election since 2000 were Australia's final polls closest to the result?
2016: 0.3 points out per party on average. See the page
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7In Australia, whose poll average has moved most in the last week of polling?
Labor: down 0.6 points, now 26.3%. See the page
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8Which party won the most votes at Australia's 2019 election?
Coalition with 41.4%, ahead of Labor on 33.3%. See the page
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9At Australia's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
2.0 points per party, over 10 final polls. See the page
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10At Australia's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Labor: 31.9% in the final polls, 34.6% on the day. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.