How well do you know the polls in the UK?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 83 for 4 November 2026.
-
1In the United Kingdom, what chance does our forecast give for “Labour largest party”?
94%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
-
2To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Con win at the United Kingdom's 2019 election?
44.7%. See the page
-
3Which party won the most votes at the United Kingdom's 2015 election?
Con with 37.7%, ahead of Lab on 31.2%. See the page
-
4In the United Kingdom, what chance does our forecast give for “Labour majority”?
45%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
-
5At the United Kingdom's 2024 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
2.2 points per party, over 20 final polls. See the page
-
6How many seats does our forecast give Labour in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom?
326 in our projection, a majority (326 needed). See the page
-
7At the United Kingdom's 2024 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Lab: 38.9% in the final polls, 34.7% on the day. See the page
-
8Which party won the most votes at the United Kingdom's 2019 election?
Con with 44.7%, ahead of Lab on 32.9%. See the page
-
9How many seats does our forecast give Conservative in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom?
153 in our projection. See the page
-
10Which party won the most votes at the United Kingdom's 2017 election?
Con with 43.4%, ahead of Lab on 41.0%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.