How well do you know the polls in Canada?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 62 for 4 November 2026.
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1To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2015 election?
39.5%. See the page
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2To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Conservative win at Canada's 2021 election?
33.7%. See the page
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3How many seats does our forecast give Liberal in the House of Commons in Canada?
235 in our projection, a majority (172 needed). See the page
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4At Canada's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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5How many seats does our forecast give Conservative in the House of Commons in Canada?
73 in our projection. See the page
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6Who leads the polls in Canada?
Liberal on 46.2% in our average, ahead of Conservative on 30.7%. See the page
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7To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2025 election?
43.8%. See the page
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8At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls closest to the result?
2000: 0.4 points out per party on average. See the page
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9At which election since 2000 were Canada's final polls furthest out?
2004: 2.0 points out per party on average. See the page
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10At Canada's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
NDP: 8.5% in the final polls, 6.3% on the day. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.