How well do you know the polls in Australia?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 5 for 3 November 2026.
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1In Australia, what chance does our forecast give for “Coalition + One Nation 76+”?
57%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2At Australia's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Labor: 31.9% in the final polls, 34.6% on the day. See the page
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3To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Labor win at Australia's 2025 election?
34.6%. See the page
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4At Australia's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Coalition: 34.2% in the final polls, 31.8% on the day. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Coalition win at Australia's 2019 election?
41.4%. See the page
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6How many seats does our forecast give One Nation in the House of Representatives in Australia?
63 in our projection, 13 short of a majority. See the page
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7In Australia, whose poll average has moved most in the last week of polling?
Coalition: up 1.2 points, now 22.9%. See the page
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8At which election since 2000 were Australia's final polls furthest out?
2010: 2.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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9At Australia's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
2.0 points per party, over 10 final polls. See the page
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10Who leads the polls in Australia?
Labor on 26.6% in our average, ahead of One Nation on 26.0%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.