How well do you know the polls in Canada?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 5 for 3 November 2026.
-
1How many seats does our forecast give Liberal in the House of Commons in Canada?
236 in our projection, a majority (172 needed). See the page
-
2Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2015 election?
Liberal with 39.5%, ahead of Conservative on 31.9%. See the page
-
3In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
33%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
-
4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2015 election?
39.5%. See the page
-
5How many seats does our forecast give Conservative in the House of Commons in Canada?
72 in our projection. See the page
-
6At Canada's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
Conservative: 38.9% in the final polls, 41.3% on the day. See the page
-
7At Canada's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
NDP: 8.5% in the final polls, 6.3% on the day. See the page
-
8Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2019 election?
Conservative with 34.3%, ahead of Liberal on 33.1%. See the page
-
9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Liberal win at Canada's 2025 election?
43.8%. See the page
-
10Which party won the most votes at Canada's 2021 election?
Conservative with 33.7%, ahead of Liberal on 32.6%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.