Nieuw hier? Begin met zelf de peilingen te verschuiven en zie de zetels veranderen.
Peilingen verschuiven → Alle tools →Where the polls stood 3 years and 6 months before each of the last three general elections, and what happened next. 2023 and 2025 came early, so they are taken at the same distance from the election before. The biggest move from this point: PVV in 2023, +14.8 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
PVV led by 9.0. D66 won the vote instead, by 0.3.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PVV | 25.0 | 16.7 | −8.3 |
| D66 | 7.6 | 16.9 | +9.3 |
| PRO | 16.0 | 12.8 | −3.2 |
| VVD | 14.2 | 14.2 | 0.0 |
| CDA | 8.2 | 11.8 | +3.6 |
| JA21 | 1.0 | 6.0 | +5.0 |
VVD led by 5.6. PVV won the vote instead, by 7.7.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PVV | 8.7 | 23.5 | +14.8 |
| VVD | 19.7 | 15.2 | −4.5 |
| PRO | 14.1 | 15.8 | +1.7 |
| NSC | – | 12.9 | |
| D66 | 12.2 | 6.3 | −5.9 |
| SP | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.4 |
VVD led by 6.2. VVD won the vote by 6.9 on 17 March.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VVD | 20.9 | 21.9 | +1.0 |
| D66 | 12.4 | 15.0 | +2.6 |
| PRO | 14.7 | 10.9 | −3.8 |
| PVV | 12.6 | 10.8 | −1.8 |
| CDA | 10.2 | 9.5 | −0.7 |
| SP | 6.9 | 6.0 | −0.9 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2025 | As in 2023 | As in 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRO | 18.8 | 15.6 | 20.5 | 15.0 |
| PVV | 12.6 | 4.3 | 27.4 | 10.8 |
| JA21 | 11.9 | 16.9 | 7.1 | |
| D66 | 10.1 | 19.4 | 4.2 | 12.7 |
| VVD | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 10.4 |
| CDA | 8.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 7.6 |
| FvD | 8.0 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| PvdD | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
D66 and PVV would overtake in two of the three. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Dutch polls give seats; we convert them to shares of the 150.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2021 Dutch general election, Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch general election, Opinion polling for the 2025 Dutch general election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
