New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Italy · Votes per seat
A seat costs Azione 1.5 times as many votes as Centre-left
Italy elects its 400 seats by a mix of single-member seats and lists. On our projection, 38 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give.
- 38seats away from proportion
- +38Centre-left's bonus
- 0.83Centre-left's cost per seat (1.00 = average)
Seats against the vote
- Centre-left43.7% of the vote 223 seats; 185 in proportion (+38) 0.83 × the average votes per seat
- Centre-right41.2% of the vote 143 seats; 174 in proportion (-31) 1.22 × the average votes per seat
- FN6.7% of the vote 24 seats; 29 in proportion (-5) 1.19 × the average votes per seat
- Azione3.0% of the vote 10 seats; 13 in proportion (-3) 1.27 × the average votes per seat
"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →