Guarrate: UPG would keep its majority
Guarrate (Zamora, 315 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 82%UPG majority
- 224valid votes in 2023 (80% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 18% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Guarrate
Guarrate is a municipality in the province of Zamora with 315 inhabitants, the 88th largest of its 248 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 UPG came first with 48.2% of the vote and 4 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 2. 80% of the 280 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps UPG on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 82% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- UPGLocal lists 48.2% → 51.4% 4 → 4 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 29.9% → 27.1% 2 → 2 councillors
- PPPP 20.1% → 19.7% 1 → 1 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 224 valid votes including 4 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.