España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

Santa Oliva: no list would have a majority, PSC-CP largest

Santa Oliva (Tarragona, 3,560 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSC-CP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 37.4% of the vote (2023: 42.0%) Majority 10%
ERC - AM+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 24.1% of the vote (2023: 19.1%) Majority 0%
CPSOECP - C−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 18.9% of the vote (2023: 23.3%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 11.5% of the vote (2023: 6.3%) Majority 0%
PP−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.5% of the vote (2023: 7.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 90% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSC-CPPSOE 42.0% → 37.4% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. ERC - AMERC 19.1% → 24.1% 2 → 3 councillors
  3. CPSOECP - CSumar, Podemos and allies 23.3% → 18.9% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. VOXVox 6.3% → 11.5% 0 → 1 councillors
  5. PPPP 7.6% → 6.5% 1 → 0 councillors
  6. SOMILocal lists 0.3% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,440 valid votes including 19 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Santa Oliva in size, in Tarragona

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