Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Santa Bàrbara: no list would have a majority, ERC - AM largest

Santa Bàrbara (Tarragona, 3,791 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

ERC - AM±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 28.8% of the vote (2023: 22.9%) Majority 0%
CM±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 26.9% of the vote (2023: 30.3%) Majority under 1%
PERSB'±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 25.8% of the vote (2023: 25.5%) Majority 0%
SBAU - ARA PL±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.7% of the vote (2023: 9.5%) Majority 0%
PSC-CP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.4% of the vote (2023: 10.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. ERC - AMERC 22.9% → 28.8% 3 → 3 councillors
  2. CMJunts 30.3% → 26.9% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. PERSB'Local lists 25.5% → 25.8% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. SBAU - ARA PLLocal lists 9.5% → 9.7% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PSC-CPPSOE 10.3% → 7.4% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,657 valid votes including 24 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Santa Bàrbara in size, in Tarragona

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