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El Morell: no list would have a majority, CM largest

El Morell (Tarragona, 3,803 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CM−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 40.3% of the vote (2023: 43.2%) Majority 37%
#COMPARTIM-FIC±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 17.2% of the vote (2023: 16.1%) Majority 0%
ERC - AM+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 16.5% of the vote (2023: 12.5%) Majority 0%
ARA PL±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 15.6% of the vote (2023: 14.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 63% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CMJunts 43.2% → 40.3% 6 → 5 councillors
  2. #COMPARTIM-FICLocal lists 16.1% → 17.2% 2 → 2 councillors
  3. ERC - AMERC 12.5% → 16.5% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. ARA PLLocal lists 14.6% → 15.6% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. PSC-CPPSOE 6.9% → 4.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  6. VALENTSLocal lists 3.8% → 4.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. PPPP 2.0% → 1.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,757 valid votes including 17 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near El Morell in size, in Tarragona

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