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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Tarragona

Calafell: no list would have a majority, PSC-CP largest

Calafell (Tarragona, 29,102 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSC-CP−2
8 councillors (2023: 10) · 30.7% of the vote (2023: 35.3%) Majority 6%
ERC - AM±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 13.8% of the vote (2023: 11.0%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 13.5% of the vote (2023: 7.9%) Majority 0%
UAM+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 10.5% of the vote (2023: 10.4%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 7.1% of the vote (2023: 8.3%) Majority 0%
CUP-AMUNT+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.9% of the vote (2023: 6.8%) Majority 0%
CM−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 4.5% of the vote (2023: 5.1%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 94% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSC-CPPSOE 35.3% → 30.7% 10 → 8 councillors
  2. ERC - AMERC 11.0% → 13.8% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. VOXVox 7.9% → 13.5% 2 → 3 councillors
  4. UAMLocal lists 10.4% → 10.5% 2 → 3 councillors
  5. PPPP 8.3% → 7.1% 2 → 2 councillors
  6. CUP-AMUNTCUP 6.8% → 6.9% 1 → 2 councillors
  7. APLLocal lists 4.8% → 4.8% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. CMJunts 5.1% → 4.5% 1 → 0 councillors
  9. VALENTSLocal lists 3.0% → 3.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  10. ECPC - CSumar, Podemos and allies 4.4% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  11. CSCiudadanos 1.8% → 1.8% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,686 valid votes including 126 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Calafell in size, in Tarragona

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