Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Los Llanos de Aridane: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Los Llanos de Aridane (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 20,551 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
9 councillors (2023: 9) · 38.4% of the vote (2023: 35.8%) Majority 10%
CCA−1
8 councillors (2023: 9) · 35.1% of the vote (2023: 39.3%) Majority 3%
PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 11.3% of the vote (2023: 13.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 7.1% of the vote (2023: 2.3%) Majority 0%
MAE+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 5.1% of the vote (2023: 4.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 87% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 35.8% → 38.4% 9 → 9 councillors
  2. CCACoalición Canaria 39.3% → 35.1% 9 → 8 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 13.1% → 11.3% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. VOXVox 2.3% → 7.1% 0 → 1 councillors
  5. MAELocal lists 4.5% → 5.1% 0 → 1 councillors
  6. USPSumar, Podemos and allies 4.0% → 2.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,932 valid votes including 95 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Los Llanos de Aridane in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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