Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Guía de Isora: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Guía de Isora (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 21,711 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
9 councillors (2023: 10) · 40.9% of the vote (2023: 42.3%) Majority 15%
CCA−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 28.9% of the vote (2023: 33.2%) Majority 0%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 19.4% of the vote (2023: 19.1%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
2 councillors (2023: 0) · 9.6% of the vote (2023: 4.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 85% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 42.3% → 40.9% 10 → 9 councillors
  2. CCACoalición Canaria 33.2% → 28.9% 7 → 6 councillors
  3. PPPP 19.1% → 19.4% 4 → 4 councillors
  4. VOXVox 4.2% → 9.6% 0 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,545 valid votes including 96 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Guía de Isora in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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