La Guancha: PP would win a majority
La Guancha (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 5,561 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 75%PP majority
- 3,153valid votes in 2023 (70% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 22% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About La Guancha
La Guancha is a municipality in the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife with 5,561 inhabitants, the 30th largest of its 54 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 46.4% of the vote and 6 seats; CCA was second with 6. 69.6% of the 4,531 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 75% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 46.4% → 49.2% 6 → 7 councillors
- CCACoalición Canaria 40.8% → 35.9% 6 → 5 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 10.3% → 8.1% 1 → 1 councillors
- VOXVox 1.4% → 5.7% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,153 valid votes including 34 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.
Near La Guancha in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife
- Arafo5,623 inhabitants · 13 councillors
- Breña Baja5,885 inhabitants · 13 councillors
- Valverde5,123 inhabitants · 13 councillors
- Garachico4,920 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Villa de Mazo4,905 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- San Juan de la Rambla4,864 inhabitants · 11 councillors
Every municipality in Santa Cruz de Tenerife → · All of Spain →