Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

La Guancha: PP would win a majority

La Guancha (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 5,561 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP+1
7 councillors (2023: 6) · 49.2% of the vote (2023: 46.4%) Majority 75%
CCA−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 35.9% of the vote (2023: 40.8%) Majority 3%
PSOE±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 8.1% of the vote (2023: 10.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 22% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 46.4% → 49.2% 6 → 7 councillors
  2. CCACoalición Canaria 40.8% → 35.9% 6 → 5 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 10.3% → 8.1% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. VOXVox 1.4% → 5.7% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,153 valid votes including 34 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near La Guancha in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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