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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Santa Cruz de Tenerife

Güímar: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Güímar (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 21,224 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP+1
10 councillors (2023: 9) · 41.4% of the vote (2023: 39.7%) Majority 27%
CCA−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 20.6% of the vote (2023: 23.8%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 18.0% of the vote (2023: 20.0%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
2 councillors (2023: 0) · 9.1% of the vote (2023: 3.9%) Majority 0%
NC-FAC±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.8% of the vote (2023: 5.2%) Majority 0%
USP−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 3.8% of the vote (2023: 5.9%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 73% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Güímar

Güímar is a municipality in the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife with 21,224 inhabitants, the 14th largest of its 54 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 39.7% of the vote and 9 seats; CCA was second with 5. 61.7% of the 17,094 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 10 of 21.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 39.7% → 41.4% 9 → 10 councillors
  2. CCACoalición Canaria 23.8% → 20.6% 5 → 4 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 20.0% → 18.0% 5 → 4 councillors
  4. VOXVox 3.9% → 9.1% 0 → 2 councillors
  5. NC-FACLocal lists 5.2% → 5.8% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. USPSumar, Podemos and allies 5.9% → 3.8% 1 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 10,549 valid votes including 148 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Güímar in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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