Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Frontera: A.H.I. would keep its majority

Frontera (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 4,329 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

A.H.I.±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 47.3% of the vote (2023: 46.4%) Majority 81%
PSOE±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 19.0% of the vote (2023: 22.6%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 15.9% of the vote (2023: 17.1%) Majority 0%
ASAMBLEA HERREÑA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 10.8% of the vote (2023: 10.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 19% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. A.H.I.Local lists 46.4% → 47.3% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 22.6% → 19.0% 2 → 2 councillors
  3. PPPP 17.1% → 15.9% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. ASAMBLEA HERREÑALocal lists 10.6% → 10.8% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. VOXVox 0.9% → 4.5% 0 → 0 councillors
  6. 3ELocal lists 1.3% → 1.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,201 valid votes including 25 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Frontera in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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