Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Buenavista del Norte: PSOE would keep its majority

Buenavista del Norte (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 4,753 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 48.9% of the vote (2023: 53.4%) Majority 72%
SSP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 34.7% of the vote (2023: 33.5%) Majority 1%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 8.9% of the vote (2023: 4.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 27% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 53.4% → 48.9% 7 → 6 councillors
  2. SSPLocal lists 33.5% → 34.7% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. VOXVox 4.2% → 8.9% 0 → 1 councillors
  4. CCACoalición Canaria 7.6% → 6.2% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,858 valid votes including 37 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Buenavista del Norte in size, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife

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