Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Valle de Egüés/Eguesibar: no list would have a majority, UPN largest

Valle de Egüés/Eguesibar (Navarra, 21,795 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

UPN±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 23.7% of the vote (2023: 23.3%) Majority 0%
EH BILDU±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 17.6% of the vote (2023: 16.8%) Majority 0%
V!VEGÜESB!Z!±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 13.2% of the vote (2023: 12.9%) Majority 0%
GBAI±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 10.1% of the vote (2023: 9.9%) Majority 0%
VOX+2
2 councillors (2023: 0) · 9.1% of the vote (2023: 4.5%) Majority 0%
PSN-PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 8.1% of the vote (2023: 11.0%) Majority 0%
VXV±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.3% of the vote (2023: 7.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.7% of the vote (2023: 6.8%) Majority 0%
CONTIGO-ZUREKIN−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 3.8% of the vote (2023: 6.2%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. UPNUPN 23.3% → 23.7% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. EH BILDUEH Bildu 16.8% → 17.6% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. V!VEGÜESB!Z!Local lists 12.9% → 13.2% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. GBAILocal lists 9.9% → 10.1% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. VOXVox 4.5% → 9.1% 0 → 2 councillors
  6. PSN-PSOEPSOE 11.0% → 8.1% 3 → 2 councillors
  7. VXVLocal lists 7.1% → 7.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  8. PPPP 6.8% → 5.7% 1 → 1 councillors
  9. CONTIGO-ZUREKINSumar, Podemos and allies 6.2% → 3.8% 1 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,617 valid votes including 140 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Valle de Egüés/Eguesibar in size, in Navarra

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