Estella-Lizarra: UPN would win a majority
Estella-Lizarra (Navarra, 13,977 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 66%no list with a majority
- 6,358valid votes in 2023 (60% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
UPN+2
9
councillors (2023: 7) · 39.3% of the vote (2023: 36.8%)
Majority 33%
EH BILDU+1
6
councillors (2023: 5) · 30.0% of the vote (2023: 27.4%)
Majority 1%
PSN-PSOE−1
1
councillors (2023: 2) · 8.6% of the vote (2023: 11.2%)
Majority 0%
GEROA BAI±0
1
councillors (2023: 1) · 7.9% of the vote (2023: 7.4%)
Majority 0%
PP−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 4.3% of the vote (2023: 5.2%)
Majority 0%
CONTIGO ZUREKIN−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 4.1% of the vote (2023: 6.4%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 66% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- UPNUPN 36.8% → 39.3% 7 → 9 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 27.4% → 30.0% 5 → 6 councillors
- PSN-PSOEPSOE 11.2% → 8.6% 2 → 1 councillors
- GEROA BAILocal lists 7.4% → 7.9% 1 → 1 councillors
- PPPP 5.2% → 4.3% 1 → 0 councillors
- CONTIGO ZUREKINSumar, Podemos and allies 6.4% → 4.1% 1 → 0 councillors
- IXELLocal lists 3.9% → 4.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,358 valid votes including 113 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.