Carcastillo: IC would keep its majority
Carcastillo (Navarra, 2,428 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 89%IC majority
- 1,277valid votes in 2023 (70% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Carcastillo
Carcastillo is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 2,428 inhabitants, the 53rd largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 IC came first with 55.6% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; UPN was second with 5. 70% of the 1,823 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps IC on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 89% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- ICLocal lists 55.6% → 55.6% 6 → 6 councillors
- UPNUPN 41.7% → 41.7% 5 → 5 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,277 valid votes including 34 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.