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Aranguren: CPVA would keep its majority

Aranguren (Navarra, 12,156 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CPVA±0
11 councillors (2023: 11) · 61.6% of the vote (2023: 59.4%) Majority over 99%
UPN±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 20.7% of the vote (2023: 19.9%) Majority 0%
EH BILDU±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 8.6% of the vote (2023: 8.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.3% of the vote (2023: 6.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

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The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Aranguren

Aranguren is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 12,156 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 CPVA came first with 59.4% of the vote and 11 seats, an absolute majority; UPN was second with 4. 71% of the 8,756 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps CPVA on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 100% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CPVALocal lists 59.4% → 61.6% 11 → 11 councillors
  2. UPNUPN 19.9% → 20.7% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. EH BILDUEH Bildu 8.1% → 8.6% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. PPPP 6.3% → 5.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PSN-PSOEPSOE 4.7% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,217 valid votes including 101 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Aranguren in size, in Navarra

Every municipality in Navarra → · All of Spain →