Aranguren: CPVA would keep its majority
Aranguren (Navarra, 12,156 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- over 99%CPVA majority
- 6,217valid votes in 2023 (71% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Aranguren
Aranguren is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 12,156 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 CPVA came first with 59.4% of the vote and 11 seats, an absolute majority; UPN was second with 4. 71% of the 8,756 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps CPVA on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 100% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- CPVALocal lists 59.4% → 61.6% 11 → 11 councillors
- UPNUPN 19.9% → 20.7% 4 → 4 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 8.1% → 8.6% 1 → 1 councillors
- PPPP 6.3% → 5.3% 1 → 1 councillors
- PSN-PSOEPSOE 4.7% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,217 valid votes including 101 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.
Near Aranguren in size, in Navarra
- Berriozar10,765 inhabitants · 17 councillors
- Ansoáin/Antsoain10,588 inhabitants · 17 councillors
- Tafalla10,576 inhabitants · 17 councillors
- Estella-Lizarra13,977 inhabitants · 17 councillors
- Villava/Atarrabia10,022 inhabitants · 17 councillors
- Zizur Mayor/Zizur Nagusia15,497 inhabitants · 17 councillors