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Mijas: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Mijas (Málaga, 89,502 inhabitants) elects 25 councillors on 23 May 2027; 13 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
9 councillors (2023: 9) · 30.4% of the vote (2023: 31.6%) Majority under 1%
PSOE-A−2
8 councillors (2023: 10) · 29.6% of the vote (2023: 33.6%) Majority under 1%
VOX+2
5 councillors (2023: 3) · 18.3% of the vote (2023: 11.5%) Majority 0%
CS±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 6.7% of the vote (2023: 6.6%) Majority 0%
POR MI PUEBLO±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.7% of the vote (2023: 5.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (13 of 25). No list with a majority in 99% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Mijas

Mijas is a municipality in the province of Málaga with 89,502 inhabitants, the 3rd largest of its 103 municipalities. Its council has 25 seats, and 13 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE-A came first with 33.6% of the vote and 10 seats; PP was second with 9. 51.1% of the 49,967 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 9 of 25.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 31.6% → 30.4% 9 → 9 councillors
  2. PSOE-APSOE 33.6% → 29.6% 10 → 8 councillors
  3. VOXVox 11.5% → 18.3% 3 → 5 councillors
  4. CSCiudadanos 6.6% → 6.7% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. POR MI PUEBLOLocal lists 5.5% → 5.7% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PACMALocal lists 2.0% → 2.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. A.MIJAS-A.MIHALocal lists 1.9% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. SOYDEMIJASLocal lists 1.7% → 1.7% 0 → 0 councillors
  9. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 3.4% → 1.3% 0 → 0 councillors
  10. ADELANTE ANDALUCÍALocal lists 1.2% → 1.2% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 25,548 valid votes including 272 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Mijas in size, in Málaga

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