Úbeda: PSOE would keep its majority
Úbeda (Jaén, 34,062 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 21councillors, 11 for a majority
- 69%PSOE majority
- 16,608valid votes in 2023 (61% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 30% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Úbeda
Úbeda is a municipality in the province of Jaén with 34,062 inhabitants, the 4th largest of its 97 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE came first with 53% of the vote and 12 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 7. 60.6% of the 27,428 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PSOE on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 69% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PSOEPSOE 53.0% → 49.4% 12 → 11 councillors
- PPPP 31.3% → 30.9% 7 → 7 councillors
- VOXVox 8.6% → 14.9% 1 → 3 councillors
- CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 5.7% → 3.4% 1 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 16,608 valid votes including 233 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.