Úbeda: PSOE would keep its majority
Úbeda (Jaén, 34,062 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 21councillors, 11 for a majority
- 69%PSOE majority
- 16,608valid votes in 2023 (61% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PSOE−1
11
councillors (2023: 12) · 49.4% of the vote (2023: 53.0%)
Majority 69%
PP±0
7
councillors (2023: 7) · 30.9% of the vote (2023: 31.3%)
Majority under 1%
VOX+2
3
councillors (2023: 1) · 14.9% of the vote (2023: 8.6%)
Majority 0%
CON ANDALUCÍA−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 3.4% of the vote (2023: 5.7%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 30% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PSOEPSOE 53.0% → 49.4% 12 → 11 councillors
- PPPP 31.3% → 30.9% 7 → 7 councillors
- VOXVox 8.6% → 14.9% 1 → 3 councillors
- CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 5.7% → 3.4% 1 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 16,608 valid votes including 233 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.