Bailén: PP would keep its majority
Bailén (Jaén, 17,377 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 63%PP majority
- 8,916valid votes in 2023 (63% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP±0
9
councillors (2023: 9) · 46.8% of the vote (2023: 46.9%)
Majority 63%
PSOE−1
6
councillors (2023: 7) · 31.1% of the vote (2023: 34.3%)
Majority 0%
AIBAILEN±0
1
councillors (2023: 1) · 9.3% of the vote (2023: 8.8%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 8.3% of the vote (2023: 3.6%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 37% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 46.9% → 46.8% 9 → 9 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 34.3% → 31.1% 7 → 6 councillors
- AIBAILENLocal lists 8.8% → 9.3% 1 → 1 councillors
- VOXVox 3.6% → 8.3% 0 → 1 councillors
- JM+Local lists 3.2% → 3.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- IUSumar, Podemos and allies 2.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,916 valid votes including 95 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.