La Carolina: PP would keep its majority
La Carolina (Jaén, 14,960 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 99%PP majority
- 9,044valid votes in 2023 (75% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP±0
11
councillors (2023: 11) · 58.7% of the vote (2023: 57.9%)
Majority 99%
PSOE±0
5
councillors (2023: 5) · 28.4% of the vote (2023: 31.3%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 6.4% of the vote (2023: 2.2%)
Majority 0%
I.U.−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 3.4% of the vote (2023: 5.6%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 1% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 57.9% → 58.7% 11 → 11 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 31.3% → 28.4% 5 → 5 councillors
- VOXVox 2.2% → 6.4% 0 → 1 councillors
- I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 5.6% → 3.4% 1 → 0 councillors
- A.M.I.C.A.Local lists 2.0% → 2.2% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,044 valid votes including 90 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.