La Carolina: PP would keep its majority
La Carolina (Jaén, 14,960 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 99%PP majority
- 9,044valid votes in 2023 (75% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 1% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About La Carolina
La Carolina is a municipality in the province of Jaén with 14,960 inhabitants, the 9th largest of its 97 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 57.9% of the vote and 11 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 5. 74.8% of the 12,087 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 99% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 57.9% → 58.7% 11 → 11 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 31.3% → 28.4% 5 → 5 councillors
- VOXVox 2.2% → 6.4% 0 → 1 councillors
- I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 5.6% → 3.4% 1 → 0 councillors
- A.M.I.C.A.Local lists 2.0% → 2.2% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,044 valid votes including 90 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.