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Lasarte-Oria: no list would have a majority, PSE-EE (PSOE) largest

Lasarte-Oria (Gipuzkoa, 18,949 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSE-EE (PSOE)+1
8 councillors (2023: 7) · 40.0% of the vote (2023: 40.5%) Majority 17%
EH BILDU+1
6 councillors (2023: 5) · 34.0% of the vote (2023: 29.2%) Majority 2%
EAJ-PNV−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 14.3% of the vote (2023: 16.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.1% of the vote (2023: 5.7%) Majority 0%
ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDE−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.0% of the vote (2023: 7.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 81% of 300 simulated elections.

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Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

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The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Lasarte-Oria

Lasarte-Oria is a municipality in the province of Gipuzkoa with 18,949 inhabitants, the 9th largest of its 88 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSE-EE (PSOE) came first with 40.5% of the vote and 7 seats; EH BILDU was second with 5. 56.7% of the 14,686 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSE-EE (PSOE) would be largest on 8 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 40.5% → 40.0% 7 → 8 councillors
  2. EH BILDUEH Bildu 29.2% → 34.0% 5 → 6 councillors
  3. EAJ-PNVPNV 16.1% → 14.3% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. PPPP 5.7% → 5.1% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 7.0% → 5.0% 1 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,322 valid votes including 128 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Lasarte-Oria in size, in Gipuzkoa

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