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Galdakao: no list would have a majority, EH BILDU largest

Galdakao (Bizkaia, 29,285 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

EH BILDU+1
10 councillors (2023: 9) · 40.6% of the vote (2023: 36.7%) Majority 36%
EAJ-PNV−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 21.0% of the vote (2023: 24.9%) Majority 0%
UH±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 10.2% of the vote (2023: 9.4%) Majority 0%
AZK±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 8.1% of the vote (2023: 7.6%) Majority 0%
PSE-EE (PSOE)−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 7.7% of the vote (2023: 10.2%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 5.8% of the vote (2023: 1.7%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 64% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Galdakao

Galdakao is a municipality in the province of Bizkaia with 29,285 inhabitants, the 9th largest of its 112 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 36.7% of the vote and 9 seats; EAJ-PNV was second with 6. 61.3% of the 23,903 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: EH BILDU would be largest on 10 of 21.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. EH BILDUEH Bildu 36.7% → 40.6% 9 → 10 councillors
  2. EAJ-PNVPNV 24.9% → 21.0% 6 → 5 councillors
  3. UHLocal lists 9.4% → 10.2% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. AZKLocal lists 7.6% → 8.1% 2 → 2 councillors
  5. PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 10.2% → 7.7% 2 → 1 councillors
  6. VOXVox 1.7% → 5.8% 0 → 1 councillors
  7. PPPP 3.3% → 2.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 4.0% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors
  9. BBLocal lists 1.0% → 1.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 14,654 valid votes including 172 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Galdakao in size, in Bizkaia

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