Bilbao: no list would have a majority, EAJ-PNV largest
Bilbao (Bizkaia, 344,127 inhabitants) elects 29 councillors on 23 May 2027; 15 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 29councillors, 15 for a majority
- over 99%no list with a majority
- 148,822valid votes in 2023 (56% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (15 of 29). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Bilbao
Bilbao is a municipality in the province of Bizkaia with 344,127 inhabitants, the largest of its 112 municipalities. Its council has 29 seats, and 15 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EAJ-PNV came first with 36.6% of the vote and 12 seats; EH BILDU was second with 6. 55.5% of the 267,984 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: EAJ-PNV would be largest on 10 of 29.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EAJ-PNVPNV 36.6% → 32.2% 12 → 10 councillors
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 18.9% → 21.8% 6 → 7 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 16.4% → 14.5% 5 → 4 councillors
- PPPP 12.1% → 12.0% 4 → 4 councillors
- VOXVox 3.4% → 8.5% 0 → 2 councillors
- ELKARREKIN PODEMOS - EZKER ANITZA / IU - BERDEAK ESumar, Podemos and allies 8.0% → 5.9% 2 → 2 councillors
- PACMALocal lists 1.1% → 1.2% 0 → 0 councillors
- EB-AZLocal lists 0.6% → 0.7% 0 → 0 councillors
- PUM+JLocal lists 0.4% → 0.5% 0 → 0 councillors
- STOPLocal lists 0.3% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- CSCiudadanos 0.2% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors
- PCTELocal lists 0.2% → 0.2% 0 → 0 councillors
- PHLocal lists 0.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 148,822 valid votes including 2,689 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.