Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Castellbisbal: no list would have a majority, ALTPCB - C largest

Castellbisbal (Barcelona, 12,735 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

ALTPCB - C±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 24.4% of the vote (2023: 28.9%) Majority 0%
CP−1
4 councillors (2023: 5) · 21.6% of the vote (2023: 24.8%) Majority 0%
SOM VEU±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 16.0% of the vote (2023: 15.3%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 11.3% of the vote (2023: 6.0%) Majority 0%
ERC - AM+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.8% of the vote (2023: 7.6%) Majority 0%
CM−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 9.0% of the vote (2023: 9.9%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Castellbisbal

Castellbisbal is a municipality in the province of Barcelona with 12,735 inhabitants, the 73rd largest of its 311 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 ALTPCB - C came first with 28.9% of the vote and 5 seats; CP was second with 5. 56.6% of the 9,628 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: ALTPCB - C would be largest on 5 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. ALTPCB - CSumar, Podemos and allies 28.9% → 24.4% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. CPPSOE 24.8% → 21.6% 5 → 4 councillors
  3. SOM VEULocal lists 15.3% → 16.0% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. VOXVox 6.0% → 11.3% 1 → 2 councillors
  5. ERC - AMERC 7.6% → 9.8% 1 → 2 councillors
  6. CMJunts 9.9% → 9.0% 2 → 1 councillors
  7. CUP-AMUNTCUP 3.3% → 3.5% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. CSCiudadanos 3.0% → 3.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 5,449 valid votes including 68 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Castellbisbal in size, in Barcelona

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