Agurain/Salvatierra: EH BILDU would keep its majority
Agurain/Salvatierra (Araba/Álava, 5,069 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 90%EH BILDU majority
- 2,333valid votes in 2023 (65% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Agurain/Salvatierra
Agurain/Salvatierra is a municipality in the province of Araba/Álava with 5,069 inhabitants, the 4th largest of its 51 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 48.6% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; EAJ-PNV was second with 6. 65.1% of the 3,583 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 8 seats, a majority, which it holds in 90% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 48.6% → 56.8% 7 → 8 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 46.2% → 41.3% 6 → 5 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 3.1% → 0.7% 0 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 0.9% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,333 valid votes including 29 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.