Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 20 days PP + Vox majority over 99% 2023 investiture bloc under 1% Calendar Track record Research

Census map · Spain

Foreign nationals, share of population by province

Foreign nationals, share of population in every province in Spain: highest in Alicante/Alacant (24.5%), lowest in Córdoba (3.9%); the middle province is at 11.5%. Of the fifth of provinces where it is highest, our forecast has PP winning 6 of 10; where it is lowest, PP wins 10 of 10.

Araba/Álava: 11.6% Araba/Álava: 11.6% Araba/Álava: 11.6% Araba/Álava: 11.6% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Gipuzkoa: 10.2% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Bizkaia: 9.8% Albacete: 9.3% Albacete: 9.3% Albacete: 9.3% Albacete: 9.3% Ciudad Real: 8.3% Ciudad Real: 8.3% Ciudad Real: 8.3% Ciudad Real: 8.3% Ciudad Real: 8.3% Cuenca: 14.9% Cuenca: 14.9% Cuenca: 14.9% Guadalajara: 16.8% Guadalajara: 16.8% Guadalajara: 16.8% Toledo: 13.4% Toledo: 13.4% Toledo: 13.4% Toledo: 13.4% Toledo: 13.4% Toledo: 13.4% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Alicante/Alacant: 24.5% Castellón/Castelló: 18.9% Castellón/Castelló: 18.9% Castellón/Castelló: 18.9% Castellón/Castelló: 18.9% Castellón/Castelló: 18.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Valencia/València: 15.9% Almería: 23.2% Almería: 23.2% Almería: 23.2% Almería: 23.2% Almería: 23.2% Almería: 23.2% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Cádiz: 5.5% Córdoba: 3.9% Córdoba: 3.9% Córdoba: 3.9% Córdoba: 3.9% Córdoba: 3.9% Córdoba: 3.9% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Granada: 9.1% Huelva: 11.5% Huelva: 11.5% Huelva: 11.5% Huelva: 11.5% Huelva: 11.5% Jaén: 4.1% Jaén: 4.1% Jaén: 4.1% Jaén: 4.1% Jaén: 4.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Málaga: 19.1% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Sevilla: 5.5% Ávila: 9.6% Ávila: 9.6% Ávila: 9.6% Burgos: 10.9% Burgos: 10.9% Burgos: 10.9% Burgos: 10.9% León: 6.4% León: 6.4% León: 6.4% León: 6.4% Palencia: 7.1% Palencia: 7.1% Palencia: 7.1% Salamanca: 7.0% Salamanca: 7.0% Salamanca: 7.0% Salamanca: 7.0% Segovia: 14.6% Segovia: 14.6% Segovia: 14.6% Soria: 13.1% Soria: 13.1% Valladolid: 7.7% Valladolid: 7.7% Valladolid: 7.7% Valladolid: 7.7% Valladolid: 7.7% Zamora: 5.8% Zamora: 5.8% Zamora: 5.8% Badajoz: 4.2% Badajoz: 4.2% Badajoz: 4.2% Badajoz: 4.2% Badajoz: 4.2% Cáceres: 4.8% Cáceres: 4.8% Cáceres: 4.8% Cáceres: 4.8% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Barcelona: 18.0% Girona: 21.9% Girona: 21.9% Girona: 21.9% Girona: 21.9% Girona: 21.9% Girona: 21.9% Lleida: 21.4% Lleida: 21.4% Lleida: 21.4% Lleida: 21.4% Tarragona: 19.2% Tarragona: 19.2% Tarragona: 19.2% Tarragona: 19.2% Tarragona: 19.2% Tarragona: 19.2% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% A Coruña: 6.3% Lugo: 8.0% Lugo: 8.0% Lugo: 8.0% Lugo: 8.0% Ourense: 7.9% Ourense: 7.9% Ourense: 7.9% Ourense: 7.9% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Pontevedra: 5.6% Huesca: 15.5% Huesca: 15.5% Huesca: 15.5% Teruel: 13.9% Teruel: 13.9% Teruel: 13.9% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% Zaragoza: 14.8% La Rioja: 14.8% La Rioja: 14.8% La Rioja: 14.8% La Rioja: 14.8% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Madrid: 16.6% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Murcia: 15.9% Navarra: 13.2% Navarra: 13.2% Navarra: 13.2% Navarra: 13.2% Navarra: 13.2% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Asturias: 6.8% Cantabria: 8.2% Cantabria: 8.2% Cantabria: 8.2% Cantabria: 8.2% Cantabria: 8.2% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Illes Balears: 21.7% Ceuta: 6.4% Melilla: 13.9% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 15.8% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6% Las Palmas: 14.6%
  • 3.9% – 6.4% (10)
  • 6.4% – 9.3% (10)
  • 9.3% – 13.9% (10)
  • 13.9% – 15.9% (10)
  • 15.9% – 24.5% (12)
One hexagon per province, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#ProvinceForeign nationals, share of populationProjected
1 Alicante/Alacant 24.5%PP
2 Almería 23.2%PP
3 Girona 21.9%PSOE
4 Illes Balears 21.7%PP
5 Lleida 21.4%PSOE
6 Tarragona 19.2%PSOE
7 Málaga 19.1%PP
8 Castellón/Castelló 18.9%PP
9 Barcelona 18.0%PSOE
10 Guadalajara 16.8%PP
11 Madrid 16.6%PP
12 Murcia 15.9%PP
13 Valencia/València 15.9%PP
14 Santa Cruz de Tenerife 15.8%PP
15 Huesca 15.5%PP

Lowest: the bottom 15

#ProvinceForeign nationals, share of populationProjected
52 Córdoba 3.9%PP
51 Jaén 4.1%PP
50 Badajoz 4.2%PP
49 Cáceres 4.8%PP
48 Cádiz 5.5%PP
47 Sevilla 5.5%PP
46 Pontevedra 5.6%PP
45 Zamora 5.8%PP
44 A Coruña 6.3%PP
43 Ceuta 6.4%PP
42 León 6.4%PP
41 Asturias 6.8%PP
40 Salamanca 7.0%PP
39 Palencia 7.1%PP
38 Valladolid 7.7%PP
Every province (52), highest first
#ProvinceRegionForeign nationals, share of populationProjected
1 Alicante/Alacant Comunitat Valenciana24.5%PP
2 Almería Andalucía23.2%PP
3 Girona Cataluña21.9%PSOE
4 Illes Balears Illes Balears21.7%PP
5 Lleida Cataluña21.4%PSOE
6 Tarragona Cataluña19.2%PSOE
7 Málaga Andalucía19.1%PP
8 Castellón/Castelló Comunitat Valenciana18.9%PP
9 Barcelona Cataluña18.0%PSOE
10 Guadalajara Castilla-La Mancha16.8%PP
11 Madrid Comunidad de Madrid16.6%PP
12 Murcia Región de Murcia15.9%PP
13 Valencia/València Comunitat Valenciana15.9%PP
14 Santa Cruz de Tenerife Canarias15.8%PP
15 Huesca Aragón15.5%PP
16 Cuenca Castilla-La Mancha14.9%PP
17 La Rioja La Rioja14.8%PP
18 Zaragoza Aragón14.8%PP
19 Las Palmas Canarias14.6%PSOE
20 Segovia Castilla y León14.6%PP
21 Melilla Melilla13.9%PP
22 Teruel Aragón13.9%PP
23 Toledo Castilla-La Mancha13.4%PP
24 Navarra Comunidad Foral de Navarra13.2%PSOE
25 Soria Castilla y León13.1%PP
26 Araba/Álava País Vasco11.6%PSOE
27 Huelva Andalucía11.5%PP
28 Burgos Castilla y León10.9%PP
29 Gipuzkoa País Vasco10.2%EH Bildu
30 Bizkaia País Vasco9.8%PSOE
31 Ávila Castilla y León9.6%PP
32 Albacete Castilla-La Mancha9.3%PP
33 Granada Andalucía9.1%PP
34 Ciudad Real Castilla-La Mancha8.3%PP
35 Cantabria Cantabria8.2%PP
36 Lugo Galicia8.0%PP
37 Ourense Galicia7.9%PP
38 Valladolid Castilla y León7.7%PP
39 Palencia Castilla y León7.1%PP
40 Salamanca Castilla y León7.0%PP
41 Asturias Principado de Asturias6.8%PP
42 León Castilla y León6.4%PP
43 Ceuta Ceuta6.4%PP
44 A Coruña Galicia6.3%PP
45 Zamora Castilla y León5.8%PP
46 Pontevedra Galicia5.6%PP
47 Sevilla Andalucía5.5%PP
48 Cádiz Andalucía5.5%PP
49 Cáceres Extremadura4.8%PP
50 Badajoz Extremadura4.2%PP
51 Jaén Andalucía4.1%PP
52 Córdoba Andalucía3.9%PP