Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 20 days PP + Vox majority over 99% 2023 investiture bloc under 1% Calendar Track record Research

Census map · Spain

Foreign-born, share of population by province

Foreign-born, share of population in every province in Spain: highest in Alicante/Alacant (29.2%), lowest in Jaén (5.4%); the middle province is at 16.0%. Of the fifth of provinces where it is highest, our forecast has PP winning 7 of 10; where it is lowest, PP wins 10 of 10.

Araba/Álava: 16.6% Araba/Álava: 16.6% Araba/Álava: 16.6% Araba/Álava: 16.6% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Gipuzkoa: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Bizkaia: 13.9% Albacete: 11.8% Albacete: 11.8% Albacete: 11.8% Albacete: 11.8% Ciudad Real: 10.0% Ciudad Real: 10.0% Ciudad Real: 10.0% Ciudad Real: 10.0% Ciudad Real: 10.0% Cuenca: 16.3% Cuenca: 16.3% Cuenca: 16.3% Guadalajara: 21.9% Guadalajara: 21.9% Guadalajara: 21.9% Toledo: 17.2% Toledo: 17.2% Toledo: 17.2% Toledo: 17.2% Toledo: 17.2% Toledo: 17.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Alicante/Alacant: 29.2% Castellón/Castelló: 21.8% Castellón/Castelló: 21.8% Castellón/Castelló: 21.8% Castellón/Castelló: 21.8% Castellón/Castelló: 21.8% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Valencia/València: 20.9% Almería: 25.2% Almería: 25.2% Almería: 25.2% Almería: 25.2% Almería: 25.2% Almería: 25.2% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Cádiz: 7.6% Córdoba: 5.4% Córdoba: 5.4% Córdoba: 5.4% Córdoba: 5.4% Córdoba: 5.4% Córdoba: 5.4% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Granada: 12.3% Huelva: 13.1% Huelva: 13.1% Huelva: 13.1% Huelva: 13.1% Huelva: 13.1% Jaén: 5.4% Jaén: 5.4% Jaén: 5.4% Jaén: 5.4% Jaén: 5.4% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Málaga: 24.2% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Sevilla: 7.8% Ávila: 12.7% Ávila: 12.7% Ávila: 12.7% Burgos: 14.4% Burgos: 14.4% Burgos: 14.4% Burgos: 14.4% León: 10.1% León: 10.1% León: 10.1% León: 10.1% Palencia: 9.6% Palencia: 9.6% Palencia: 9.6% Salamanca: 10.6% Salamanca: 10.6% Salamanca: 10.6% Salamanca: 10.6% Segovia: 17.3% Segovia: 17.3% Segovia: 17.3% Soria: 17.8% Soria: 17.8% Valladolid: 10.8% Valladolid: 10.8% Valladolid: 10.8% Valladolid: 10.8% Valladolid: 10.8% Zamora: 8.2% Zamora: 8.2% Zamora: 8.2% Badajoz: 5.5% Badajoz: 5.5% Badajoz: 5.5% Badajoz: 5.5% Badajoz: 5.5% Cáceres: 6.9% Cáceres: 6.9% Cáceres: 6.9% Cáceres: 6.9% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Barcelona: 25.0% Girona: 27.3% Girona: 27.3% Girona: 27.3% Girona: 27.3% Girona: 27.3% Girona: 27.3% Lleida: 24.6% Lleida: 24.6% Lleida: 24.6% Lleida: 24.6% Tarragona: 23.6% Tarragona: 23.6% Tarragona: 23.6% Tarragona: 23.6% Tarragona: 23.6% Tarragona: 23.6% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% A Coruña: 12.2% Lugo: 12.2% Lugo: 12.2% Lugo: 12.2% Lugo: 12.2% Ourense: 15.8% Ourense: 15.8% Ourense: 15.8% Ourense: 15.8% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Pontevedra: 11.2% Huesca: 19.1% Huesca: 19.1% Huesca: 19.1% Teruel: 16.2% Teruel: 16.2% Teruel: 16.2% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% Zaragoza: 19.0% La Rioja: 18.8% La Rioja: 18.8% La Rioja: 18.8% La Rioja: 18.8% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Madrid: 24.9% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Murcia: 20.4% Navarra: 19.8% Navarra: 19.8% Navarra: 19.8% Navarra: 19.8% Navarra: 19.8% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Asturias: 11.5% Cantabria: 12.6% Cantabria: 12.6% Cantabria: 12.6% Cantabria: 12.6% Cantabria: 12.6% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Illes Balears: 28.7% Ceuta: 13.6% Melilla: 24.6% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 25.5% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6% Las Palmas: 21.6%
  • 5.4% – 10.6% (10)
  • 10.6% – 13.1% (10)
  • 13.1% – 17.3% (10)
  • 17.3% – 21.9% (10)
  • 21.9% – 29.2% (12)
One hexagon per province, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#ProvinceForeign-born, share of populationProjected
1 Alicante/Alacant 29.2%PP
2 Illes Balears 28.7%PP
3 Girona 27.3%PSOE
4 Santa Cruz de Tenerife 25.5%PP
5 Almería 25.2%PP
6 Barcelona 25.0%PSOE
7 Madrid 24.9%PP
8 Lleida 24.6%PSOE
9 Melilla 24.6%PP
10 Málaga 24.2%PP
11 Tarragona 23.6%PSOE
12 Guadalajara 21.9%PP
13 Castellón/Castelló 21.8%PP
14 Las Palmas 21.6%PSOE
15 Valencia/València 20.9%PP

Lowest: the bottom 15

#ProvinceForeign-born, share of populationProjected
52 Jaén 5.4%PP
51 Córdoba 5.4%PP
50 Badajoz 5.5%PP
49 Cáceres 6.9%PP
48 Cádiz 7.6%PP
47 Sevilla 7.8%PP
46 Zamora 8.2%PP
45 Palencia 9.6%PP
44 Ciudad Real 10.0%PP
43 León 10.1%PP
42 Salamanca 10.6%PP
41 Valladolid 10.8%PP
40 Pontevedra 11.2%PP
39 Asturias 11.5%PP
38 Albacete 11.8%PP
Every province (52), highest first
#ProvinceRegionForeign-born, share of populationProjected
1 Alicante/Alacant Comunitat Valenciana29.2%PP
2 Illes Balears Illes Balears28.7%PP
3 Girona Cataluña27.3%PSOE
4 Santa Cruz de Tenerife Canarias25.5%PP
5 Almería Andalucía25.2%PP
6 Barcelona Cataluña25.0%PSOE
7 Madrid Comunidad de Madrid24.9%PP
8 Lleida Cataluña24.6%PSOE
9 Melilla Melilla24.6%PP
10 Málaga Andalucía24.2%PP
11 Tarragona Cataluña23.6%PSOE
12 Guadalajara Castilla-La Mancha21.9%PP
13 Castellón/Castelló Comunitat Valenciana21.8%PP
14 Las Palmas Canarias21.6%PSOE
15 Valencia/València Comunitat Valenciana20.9%PP
16 Murcia Región de Murcia20.4%PP
17 Navarra Comunidad Foral de Navarra19.8%PSOE
18 Huesca Aragón19.1%PP
19 Zaragoza Aragón19.0%PP
20 La Rioja La Rioja18.8%PP
21 Soria Castilla y León17.8%PP
22 Segovia Castilla y León17.3%PP
23 Toledo Castilla-La Mancha17.2%PP
24 Araba/Álava País Vasco16.6%PSOE
25 Cuenca Castilla-La Mancha16.3%PP
26 Teruel Aragón16.2%PP
27 Ourense Galicia15.8%PP
28 Burgos Castilla y León14.4%PP
29 Gipuzkoa País Vasco13.9%EH Bildu
30 Bizkaia País Vasco13.9%PSOE
31 Ceuta Ceuta13.6%PP
32 Huelva Andalucía13.1%PP
33 Ávila Castilla y León12.7%PP
34 Cantabria Cantabria12.6%PP
35 Granada Andalucía12.3%PP
36 Lugo Galicia12.2%PP
37 A Coruña Galicia12.2%PP
38 Albacete Castilla-La Mancha11.8%PP
39 Asturias Principado de Asturias11.5%PP
40 Pontevedra Galicia11.2%PP
41 Valladolid Castilla y León10.8%PP
42 Salamanca Castilla y León10.6%PP
43 León Castilla y León10.1%PP
44 Ciudad Real Castilla-La Mancha10.0%PP
45 Palencia Castilla y León9.6%PP
46 Zamora Castilla y León8.2%PP
47 Sevilla Andalucía7.8%PP
48 Cádiz Andalucía7.6%PP
49 Cáceres Extremadura6.9%PP
50 Badajoz Extremadura5.5%PP
51 Córdoba Andalucía5.4%PP
52 Jaén Andalucía5.4%PP