INSA and Forsa keep the AfD clear, and our projection now gives it 200 seats
Both polls since our last round-up have the AfD ahead, by 10.5 points with INSA and 6 with Forsa. Our projection: AfD 200 seats on 27.7 per cent, CDU/CSU 148.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Two Bundestag polls have come out since our last round-up, and both put the AfD first. INSA for Bild (26 October) had the AfD on 29.5 and the CDU/CSU on 19, a 10.5-point lead, with the SPD and the Greens on 14 each, the Linke on 10 and the FDP on 5. No party moved by a point or more from INSA's poll of 23 October.
Forsa for RTL and ntv (26 October) had the AfD on 27 and the CDU/CSU on 21, a 6-point lead. That is a point better for the Union than Forsa's poll a week earlier, with the AfD unchanged. Forsa had the Greens on 16 and the SPD on 13.
The poll check
INSA usually has the AfD slightly higher and the Union slightly lower than other pollsters. Allowing for that, its 10.5-point lead is about 9. Forsa runs close to the pack on both parties, and its 6-point lead becomes about 5. INSA's 14 for the Greens is 2 points below the median of the other polls that week. The Politbarometer that had the Union 3 points ahead on 22 October is still the only poll since mid-September to put the CDU/CSU first.
Our projection
The AfD is on 27.7 per cent in our average, 7.1 points ahead of the CDU/CSU on 20.6. The Greens are on 14.8, the SPD 13.6 and the Linke 10.6. If the Bundestag were elected on these figures, the AfD would win 200 seats, 12 more than last week, and the CDU/CSU 148. The Greens would have 106, the SPD 98, down 11, and the Linke 77.
CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens together reach a majority in 97 per cent of our simulations, down from 99. The FDP, on 4.0, clears 5 per cent in 24 per cent of them, and the BSW, on 3.2, in 4.
The context
Pensions still divide the coalition. On 28 October the DGB leader Yasmin Fahimi said the right of long-serving workers to retire early without a deduction, the old retirement at 63, must not be abolished. The pension commission wants to end it. Friedrich Merz has kept to his timetable: the pension bill goes to cabinet this year and should pass the Bundestag in the first quarter of 2027.
The next federal election is due by 25 March 2029.
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