Four polls put the AfD between 7 and 12 points ahead
The AfD is on 26.1 in our average, up 0.8 points, while the SPD and the Linke each fell 0.6 in a week of four polls.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 19 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Four polls of the Bundestag vote were published in the week to 21 October, all with fieldwork ending on 19 October, and all four put the AfD first. Our average has the AfD on 26.1 per cent, up 0.8 points over the last week of polling. The CDU/CSU is on 19.4, down 0.3, the SPD on 15.3 and the Greens on 15. The SPD and the Linke, on 11.4, each fell 0.6 points. The FDP is on 4 and the BSW on 3.1, both below the 5 per cent threshold.
INSA and GMS have the AfD on 30
INSA and GMS both had the AfD on 30, 3.9 points above our average. INSA put the CDU/CSU on 18, a lead of 12 points, the widest of the week. Part of that is usual for INSA: across 167 polls it has tended to show the AfD 0.8 points higher and the Greens 0.8 points lower than other pollsters, both clear differences. With its usual differences taken off, its poll reads AfD 29.2 and CDU/CSU 18.5, a lead of 10.7 points.
GMS had the CDU/CSU on 19 and the SPD on 12, 3.3 points below our average, for an AfD lead of 11 points. Its usual differences are small: with them taken off, the lead is still 10.7 points. We grade GMS E, the lowest of the four.
YouGov Deutschland had the AfD on 28 and the CDU/CSU on 18, a lead of 10 points. It has tended to show the AfD 0.6 points higher than other pollsters, a clear difference across 20 polls, and like for like its lead is 8.9 points. It also had the FDP on 5, a point above our average.
Forsa stood apart with the narrowest lead, 7 points: AfD 27, CDU/CSU 20. It had the Greens on 17, 2 points above our average, and the SPD on 13, 2.3 points below. Both fit its usual pattern: across 84 polls Forsa has tended to show the SPD a point lower and the Greens 0.7 points higher than other pollsters. Like for like, its poll reads AfD 26.8, CDU/CSU 20.7, Greens 16.3 and SPD 14, a lead of 6.1 points.
So the four polls disagree mainly on the size of the AfD lead, not on its direction. Taken like for like, the gap runs from 6.1 points in Forsa's poll to 10.7 in INSA's and GMS's.
Our forecast
On today's polls our projection makes the AfD the largest party in the Bundestag with 189 seats, up from 152. The CDU/CSU would fall to 140 from 208, the SPD would have 110, the Greens 108 and the Linke 82. With 316 seats needed for a majority, the AfD would be well short.
A coalition of the CDU/CSU, the SPD and the Greens would have a majority in 98 per cent of our simulations. The FDP clears 5 per cent in 24 per cent of them and the BSW in 3 per cent.
The next Bundestag election is due by 25 March 2029 at the latest, 886 days away.
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