Who wins Congress if the vote moves?
Our projection, based on 5,000 simulations, has the Democrats on 53.1% of the national House vote and the Republicans on 46.6%. Drag the sliders and every House seat and Senate race on the maps changes with them.
House
Senate
Governors
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Point at a district (tap on a phone) to see it; click to open it.
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Grey: no race this year.
Democrat Republican Independent · paler = closer race · outlined = changes hands against our projection
Seats that change hands
Against our projection.
The closest races on these numbers
Set a Senate or governor race yourself
Each race's lead: D+ means the Democrat (or independent) is ahead, R+ the Republican. A race you set stays put when the national sliders move; × puts it back.
How it works: our projection puts each district and state where the polls, its 2024 and 2020 presidential vote and its incumbent put it (method). A change in the national vote moves every contested race by the same number of points, so a seat flips when the swing passes its margin. A past miss moves every race by that cycle's average error in the final Senate and governor polls. Uncontested seats don't move. Build your own map race by race on make your map.
