Polls · 2028 presidential election, national
Big Data Poll , 27 July 2026
Big Data Poll has Kamala Harris ahead of Gavin Newsom by 15.4 points in 2028 presidential election, national, 29.7% to 14.3%. Since its previous poll (24 January 2026): Gavin Newsom −7.9 (22.2 → 14.3), Pete Buttigieg −4.3 (11.7 → 7.4), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +2.2 (6.4 → 8.6).
| Race | 2028 presidential election, national |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 24 July 2026 – 27 July 2026 |
| Stage | primary D |
| Sample | 1,338 (likely voters) |
| Method | mixed: online (Lucid/CINT) plus live-agent phone and P2P SMS text-to-web from L2/Aristotle voter files |
| Release | release |
| In our average | No: a primary, another matchup, an older poll of the same pollster, or older than the window |
Main
 Kamala Harris D |
29.7 | |
 Gavin Newsom D |
14.3 | |
| Undecided | 12.3 | |
 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D |
8.6 | |
 Pete Buttigieg D |
7.4 | |
 Josh Shapiro D |
6.5 | |
 Jon Ossoff D |
6.2 | |
| Other | 6.1 | |
 Mark Kelly D |
5 | |
 Andy Beshear D |
4 |
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 3 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Gavin Newsom 14.3% against 16.9%; Jon Ossoff 6.2% against 8.3%.
Big Data Poll's previous poll of this race, 24 January 2026 →
Photo credits
3 official portraits from the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (US government work, public domain): Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Mark Kelly.
- Andy Beshear: Photo: Dale Greer, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kentucky_Air_Guard_supports_governor's_inauguration_(1)_(cropped).jpg)
- Gavin Newsom: Photo: Charles Ommanney – Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Governor_of_California_Gavin_Newsom_(cropped_3x4).jpg)
- Josh Shapiro: Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Josh_Shapiro_2022_(cropped).jpg)
- Kamala Harris: Photo: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_Vice_Presidential_Portrait.jpg)
- Pete Buttigieg: Photo: United States Department of Transportation, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Buttigieg,_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg)