How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 86 for 4 November 2026.
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1How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
197 in our projection, 119 short of a majority. See the page
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2Which party has lost most support since Italy's last election (25 September 2022)?
Lega: 8.8% then, 5.7% in our average now (−3.1 points). See the page
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3At Poland's 2023 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
TD: 10.7% in the final polls, 14.4% on the day. See the page
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4Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2025 election?
CDU/CSU with 28.5%, ahead of AfD on 20.8%. See the page
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5At Spain's 2023 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 22 final polls. See the page
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6At Poland's 2023 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.9 points per party, over 12 final polls. See the page
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7At which election since 2000 were Spain's final polls closest to the result?
2008: 1.0 point out per party on average. See the page
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8At which election since 2000 were the United States' final polls closest to the result?
2004: 0.1 points out per party on average. See the page
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9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Republican win at the United States' 2024 election?
49.8%. See the page
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10How many seats does our forecast give Labor in the House of Representatives in Australia?
54 in our projection. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.