How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 71 for 4 November 2026.
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1Which party won the most votes at Italy's 2018 election?
M5S with 32.7%, ahead of PD on 18.8%. See the page
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2How many seats does our forecast give Liberal in the House of Commons in Canada?
235 in our projection, a majority (172 needed). See the page
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3At which election since 2000 were the United States' final polls closest to the result?
2004: 0.1 points out per party on average. See the page
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4How many seats does our forecast give Left (NFP and other left) in the Assemblée nationale in France?
282 in our projection, 7 short of a majority. See the page
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5At the Netherlands' 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
PRO: 15.4% in the final polls, 12.8% on the day. See the page
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6At Canada's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.5 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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7At which election since 2000 were the Netherlands' final polls closest to the result?
2006: 1.1 points out per party on average. See the page
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8Which party won the most votes at Australia's 2022 election?
Coalition with 35.7%, ahead of Labor on 32.6%. See the page
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9In the United States, what chance does our forecast give for “Democratic House majority”?
90%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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10Which party has lost most support since Italy's last election (25 September 2022)?
Lega: 8.8% then, 5.7% in our average now (−3.1 points). See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.