How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 71 for 4 November 2026.
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1At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls closest to the result?
2021: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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2At Germany's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.2 points per party, over 13 final polls. See the page
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3How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
197 in our projection, 119 short of a majority. See the page
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4At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls furthest out?
2005: 2.3 points out per party on average. See the page
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5How many seats does our forecast give CDU/CSU in the Bundestag in Germany?
148 in our projection. See the page
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6Who leads the polls in Germany?
AfD on 27.4% in our average, ahead of CDU/CSU on 20.5%. See the page
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7Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2025 election?
CDU/CSU with 28.5%, ahead of AfD on 20.8%. See the page
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8At Germany's 2025 election, which party did better than the final polls said, by the most?
SPD: 15.2% in the final polls, 16.4% on the day. See the page
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9In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “BSW clears 5%”?
5%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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10Which pollster's final polls have been closest to the result in Germany?
Wahlkreisprognose: 0.8 points out per party on average over 2 elections, the best of 4. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.