How well do you know the polls?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 54 for 4 November 2026.
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1In France, what chance does our forecast give for “Philippe wins”?
6%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Lab win at the United Kingdom's 2024 election?
34.7%. See the page
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3In the Netherlands, whose poll average has moved most in the last week of polling?
D66: down 1.0 point, now 10.1%. See the page
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4In Canada, what chance does our forecast give for “NDP reaches 12 seats (party status)”?
36%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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5At the Netherlands' 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.4 points per party, over 3 final polls. See the page
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6At Australia's 2025 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
2.0 points per party, over 10 final polls. See the page
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7How many seats does our forecast give Conservative in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom?
153 in our projection. See the page
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8Which of these national elections comes first?
Spain: general election, on 29 November 2026. See the page
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9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did PiS win at Poland's 2023 election?
35.4%. See the page
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10Which party won the most votes at France's 2017 election?
Ensemble with 24.0%, ahead of RN on 21.3%. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.