How well do you know the polls in the US?
9 questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 3 for 2 November 2026.
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1To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Democrat win at the United States' 2012 election?
50.9%. See the page
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2At which election since 2000 were the United States' final polls furthest out?
2016: 2.8 points out per party on average. See the page
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3In the United States, what chance does our forecast give for “Democratic House majority”?
90%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Democrat win at the United States' 2020 election?
51.3%. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Democrat win at the United States' 2016 election?
48.1%. See the page
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6At the United States' 2024 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.4 points per party, over 34 final polls. See the page
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7At which election since 2000 were the United States' final polls closest to the result?
2004: 0.1 points out per party on average. See the page
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8In the United States, what chance does our forecast give for “Democratic Senate control”?
82%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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9To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Republican win at the United States' 2024 election?
49.8%. See the page
out of 9
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.