How well do you know the polls in France?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 3 for 2 November 2026.
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1In France, what chance does our forecast give for “Le Pen v Mélenchon in round two”?
72%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2Which party won the most votes at France's 2017 election?
Ensemble with 24.0%, ahead of RN on 21.3%. See the page
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3In France, what chance does our forecast give for “Philippe wins”?
6%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did Ensemble win at France's 2022 election?
27.9%. See the page
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5Who leads the polls in France?
Le Pen on 34.2% in our average, ahead of Mélenchon on 16.8%. See the page
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6At France's 2024 election, how far out was the average final poll, per party, to the nearest half point?
1.0 point per party, over 7 final polls. See the page
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7Which party won the most votes at France's 2022 election?
Ensemble with 27.9%, ahead of RN on 23.2%. See the page
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8At which election since 2000 were France's final polls closest to the result?
2017: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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9At France's 2024 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
RN + allies: 36.1% in the final polls, 33.2% on the day. See the page
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10How many seats does our forecast give RN and allies in the Assemblée nationale in France?
123 in our projection. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.