How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 94 for 4 November 2026.
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1In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “BSW clears 5%”?
5%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2025 election?
28.5%. See the page
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3How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
197 in our projection, 119 short of a majority. See the page
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4Who leads the polls in Germany?
AfD on 27.4% in our average, ahead of CDU/CSU on 20.5%. See the page
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5To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2017 election?
32.9%. See the page
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6In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “FDP clears 5%”?
24%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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7At Germany's 2025 election, which party did the final polls overstate most?
Greens: 13.0% in the final polls, 11.6% on the day. See the page
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8To the nearest point, what share of the vote did SPD win at Germany's 2021 election?
25.7%. See the page
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9At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls furthest out?
2005: 2.3 points out per party on average. See the page
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10How many seats does our forecast give CDU/CSU in the Bundestag in Germany?
148 in our projection. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.