How well do you know the polls in Germany?
Ten questions from today's figures: our poll averages, our forecast and how the polls did at past elections. Round 65 for 4 November 2026.
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1In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “BSW clears 5%”?
5%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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2How many seats does our forecast give AfD in the Bundestag in Germany?
197 in our projection, 119 short of a majority. See the page
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3Which party won the most votes at Germany's 2021 election?
SPD with 25.7%, ahead of CDU/CSU on 24.1%. See the page
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4To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2025 election?
28.5%. See the page
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5At which election since 2000 were Germany's final polls closest to the result?
2021: 0.7 points out per party on average. See the page
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6Which party has lost most support since Germany's last election (23 February 2025)?
CDU/CSU: 28.5% then, 20.5% in our average now (−8.0 points). See the page
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7To the nearest point, what share of the vote did CDU/CSU win at Germany's 2017 election?
32.9%. See the page
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8Which pollster's final polls have been closest to the result in Germany?
Wahlkreisprognose: 0.8 points out per party on average over 2 elections, the best of 4. See the page
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9In Germany, what chance does our forecast give for “CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens majority”?
97%, from thousands of simulated elections with the polls missing as they have before. See the page
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10How many seats does our forecast give CDU/CSU in the Bundestag in Germany?
148 in our projection. See the page
out of 10
Questions are written automatically from the figures on the site, so they change as new polls come in. Your answers and score stay in your browser.